Professor Peter Vickers uncovers new method to measure global scientific consensus
A team of international researchers led by Professor Peter Vickers from our top-rated Philosophy department has developed a breakthrough method for gathering and analysing global scientific opinion with speed and precision.
Launched in June 2023, this approach, which involved scientists across 30 institutions in 12 countries, offers policymakers a powerful new tool to gauge expert opinion in real-time on pressing scientific topics.
High response rate and rapid turnaround
The study achieved unprecedented response rates, with 6,807 scientists completing the survey, marking a 33.9% response rate — the highest ever in large-scale global scientific surveys.
Using a streamlined, 10-second format, researchers invited participants to respond to a single statement on the cause of COVID-19.
The majority, 93.2%, agreed that ‘COVID-19 is caused by a virus,’ establishing a baseline of consensus and showcasing the method’s high engagement across diverse fields such as biology, physics, and health sciences.
Researchers say this approach could be a game-changer in collecting swift, broad-scale scientific opinion.
Global expansion
Following the success of the pilot, the team has expanded the network to 80 institutions, incorporating 50,000 scientists worldwide.
This larger network is designed to further diversify the data collected and provide insights across new scientific fields and geographical regions, ensuring that future surveys capture an even wider spectrum of global scientific opinion.
Transforming public policy and communication
The novel method’s ability to quickly capture and communicate scientific consensus has vast implications.
From climate change to global health crises, timely data on expert agreement or disagreement could significantly impact public awareness, influence policies, and enhance trust in scientific decision-making.
The research team aims to make this tool a regular feature of global science communication, helping inform society on critical scientific issues affecting all of us, wherever science plays an important role.
Find out more
- Learn more about the work of Professor Peter Vickers, Dr Samantha Mitchell Finnigan and Professor Mariann Hardey.
- Read the full paper published in PLOS ONE.
- Interested in studying at Durham? Explore our undergraduate and postgraduate courses.
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