Professor Noel Sebastian Keenlyside

March 2^nd 2026

13.00-15.00 

TLC116

Register here

The Atlantic multi-decadal variability will shape climate change over the coming decades

Noel Keenlyside

1. 1. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway.
2. Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway.

January was globally the fifth warmest on record. At the same time, northern Europe is seeing a harsh winter, but there are milder temperatures in the south and extreme flooding in Morocco. Although anthropogenic global warming dominates recent climate change, the Atlantic Ocean strongly influences our climate, contributing to the current anomalous winter conditions. In this talk I will show that Atlantic multi-decadal variability is a key factor shaping high-latitude climate.

The current rapid warming of the Arctic and alarming sea-ice retreat have become icons of climate change. Yet there was a similarly strong Arctic warming event in the early 20th century, long before modern emissions increased. I will show using a new reconstruction of past sea ice together with atmospheric model experiments that around 60% of this warming was caused by natural Atlantic Ocean multi-decadal variability. Furthermore, I will also show that Atlantic multi-decadal variability can account for around 60% of the most recent warming of western Greenland.

Considering that Atlantic multi-decadal variability is shifting towards its negative phase, these finding suggest that we may see a suppression of warming and potentially even cooling trends in the Arctic, including Greenland over the next decade. These results point to the importance of considering internal climate dynamics for near-term climate projections.

Short Bio

Noel Keenlyside is professor tropical meteorology at the Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and head of the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit.  He has extensive experience in climate dynamics, modelling and prediction. His interests extend to climate services and to the development of integrated Earth-Ecosystem Models. Keenlyside has led major international projects focusing on improving the prediction of climate and its impacts. He has also co-chaired and served on WCRP CLIVAR panels, including the Climate Dynamics, Atlantic Region Panel, and Research Focus on Tropical Basin Interactions.