Uncertainty and Risk in a Fracturing World

Centre scholars engage in academic research and policy-relevant work on issues relating to the increasing uncertainty and risks facing the business world in the era of deglobalization and great power conflict. They use a range of methods, including but not restricted to sociological observations, empirical analysis, and mathematical modelling. Example applications include SMEs, portfolio managers, the supply chain, among others.

Members

• Chang Dong, https://www.durham.ac.uk/business/our-people/chang-dong/ 
• Rui Hou, https://www.durham.ac.uk/business/our-people/rui-hou/ 
• Rudolf R Sinkovics, https://www.sinkovics.com/rudolf 
• Stavros Zenios, https://www.durham.ac.uk/business/our-people/stavros-zenios/ 

Associated research (selection)

• Sinkovics, Rudolf R, Louise Curran, Heidy Montero-Teran, and Stefan Zagelmeyer (2026), "Rule-of-law backsliding, sustainability rollback, and international business in the Trump era," Critical Perspectives on International Business, forthcoming. https://doi.org/10.1108/cpoib-03-2026-0056
• Mammetti, Veronica, Stavros A. Zenios, and Giacomo Morelli (2026), "Are sovereign debts sustainable under energy transition?," Energy Economics, 157, 109230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109230
• Lotfi, Somayyeh, Giovanni Pagliardi, Efstathios Paparoditis, and Stavros A. Zenios (2025), "Hedging political risk in international portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, 322 (2), 629–646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2024.10.017 
• Ajovalasit, Samantha, Andrea Consiglio, Giovanni Pagliardi, and Stavros Zenios. (2024). Are bad governments a threat to sovereign defaults? The effects of political risk on debt sustainability. Brussel: Bruegel, https://www.bruegel.org/working-paper/are-bad-governments-threat-sovereign-defaults-effects-political-risk-debt. 
• Hou, Rui and Paul J A Robson (2025), "EMNEs’ navigation amid geopolitical disruptions: A paradoxical perspective," Academy of Management Proceedings, 2025 (1), 23386. https://doi.org/10.5465/AMPROC.2025.23386abstract
• Hou, Rui and Huaichuan Rui (2025), "Co-evolutionary decoupling in EMNEs’ internationalisation: A Chinese bank's journey of drifting apart from the US-led global financial system," Journal of World Business, 60 (1), 101596. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2024.101596
• Sinkovics, Rudolf R., Yusuf Kurt, and Noemi Sinkovics (2018), "The effect of matching on perceived export barriers and performance in an era of globalization discontents: Empirical evidence from UK SMEs," International Business Review, 27 (5), 1065–1079. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2018.03.007