Bridging geomorphology and philosophy in natural hazards and risk

At the invitation of Dr Greg Lusk, co-director of the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, Professor Fausto Guzzetti joined a weekly meeting of the Centre for Humanities Engaging Science and Society (CHESS). The meeting took place in Durham University’s Department of Philosophy on 28 May 2026.

Professor Guzzetti gave an introductory talk on the physical and non-physical dimensions of studying natural hazards and risk. Drawing on his experience as a geomorphologist, he showed how landslide research has evolved from mapping, counting and measuring landslides, to modelling their size, location and timing, and to using models to anticipate future events and impacts.

Using landslides as the main example, Professor Guzzetti discussed landslide inventory maps, statistical models of landslide size, susceptibility models used to estimate where landslides are expected, and recent work on short-term, hourly forecasts of rain-induced landslides based on rainfall observations and neural-network models. He also presented research on societal landslide risk in Italy, including evidence that risk is not neutral with respect to gender and age.

The talk then considered the non-physical dimensions of natural hazards, including uncertainty, decision-making, communication, the relationship between science and politics, and the responsibilities of scientists working with policy makers and communities. Professor Guzzetti argued that prediction systems inevitably involve uncertainty and error, but this should not prevent their use in early warning, land-use planning, risk mitigation and adaptation. He also stressed that communicating probabilities is not enough unless the social context in which risk is understood and acted on is addressed.

The talk was followed by a lively discussion on artificial intelligence in natural-hazards research, gender issues in hazards research and their consequences, the organisation of teams for natural-hazards research, and the communication of hazard, risk and uncertainty.

Image credit: AI-generated illustrative banner created with ChatGPT, based on source images supplied by Fausto Guzzetti.

AI-generated illustrative representation of a geomorphologist in discussion with philosophers and early-career researchers at Durham University’s CHESS Centre. It is not a photograph of the actual event.